STORIES
Research powered by 20+ years of data
Contrarian, data-first analysis on mutual funds and stocks. Every claim backed by numbers.
LIVE DATA DROPS - recurring, refreshed on schedule
Market Breadth Monitor - broad decline or a few stocks dragging the index?
% of Nifty 50/500, Midcap 150 and Smallcap 250 constituents below their 50DMA/200DMA, and down 10%/20% in a month. Computed live, not a monthly snapshot.
Flow Watch - where did the money go, every month
₹38,307 crore of net new money entered equity mutual funds in September. Among the top 8 AMCs by AUM, Kotak MF and UTI MF led, together accounting for 8% of the group's combined AUM change. 5 months tracked.
Fund Overlap Monitor - which funds duplicate each other
We checked 8,063 pairs of funds this month. Which fund houses tend to run near-identical lineups, and which specific fund pairs are worth a second look if you own both. 4 editions tracked.
No live data drops in this domain yet.
DEEP-DIVE STORIES - curated, one-off
More stock research and stories coming soon.
Alpha Lab
5 MIN READ
Why the SIP Return You See on a Fund's Page Isn't the One You'll Get
Every fund page shows a clean SIP return number. It's a description of a fund that already became a winner, measured over a window that ended before you clicked buy. Here's how often that winning streak actually continues.
27%
TOP-TIER_FUNDS_STILL_TOP-TIER_AFTER_3_YEARS
51%
HAVE_FALLEN_FURTHER_BY_THEN
1 IN 4
ROUGHLY_YOUR_OWN_ODDS_OF_A_REPEAT
Alpha Lab
6 MIN READ
Small Caps Are Expensive Again - Here's What the Data Actually Shows
September 2026 was a record month for mutual fund inflows, and small cap funds pulled in roughly ten times what large cap funds did. The valuation numbers explain why that's the riskier entry point of the three segments right now.
25%
SMALL_CAP_PE_ABOVE_ITS_OWN_5-YEAR_AVERAGE
10x
SMALL_CAP_INFLOWS_VS_LARGE_CAP,_LAST_3_MONTHS
~0%
SMALL_CAP_2-YEAR_COMPOUNDED_RETURN_TO_OCT_2026
Alpha Lab
6 MIN READ
The AUM Curse: Why Yesterday's Star Fund Becomes Tomorrow's Index Clone
A small-cap fund grew 146x over 15 years, doubling its stock count until it owned nearly the entire investable universe. Its rolling 3-year alpha went from +9.5% to -1.1%. That's not a coincidence - it's structural.
146x
AUM_GROWTH_OVER_15_YEARS
251
STOCKS_HELD_TODAY
-1.1%
ROLLING_3Y_ALPHA_TODAY_(FROM_+9.5%_PEAK)
Methodology
The corpus multiplier: why 30× beats a safe withdrawal rate
Most retirement calculators assume steady returns every year and quietly understate how much corpus you actually need. Here's why a 30-year retirement needs a 28-30x expense multiple, not the 19-20x a straight-line calculator will show you - and why 25x is the real danger line.
3.8Cr
STOCHASTIC_CORPUS_NEEDED_(₹12L/YR_EXPENSES)
2.4Cr
DETERMINISTIC_MODEL'S_ESTIMATE,_SAME_INPUTS
30
YEAR_RETIREMENT_HORIZON_MODELED
Alpha Lab
5 MIN READ
We measured alpha for 1,066 equity funds. Here's who earned it.
Only 1 in 3 active equity funds beat their benchmark over 3 years. But within that third, the gap between top and bottom is wider than most investors assume - and the winners cluster in unexpected categories.
1,066
EQUITY_FUNDS_MEASURED
31.6%
POSITIVE_3Y_ALPHA
729
ZERO_OR_NEGATIVE_ALPHA
Portfolio X-Ray
4 MIN READ
Mutual fund overlap: what it really means (and when to actually worry)
Most retail investors hold several equity funds thinking they've diversified. Often they've just paid multiple expense ratios for the same portfolio. Here's how much overlap is normal, how much crosses SEBI's same-AMC threshold, and what to actually check before you add another fund.
33%
SAME-CATEGORY_MEDIAN_OVERLAP
15%
CROSS-CATEGORY_MEDIAN_OVERLAP
56%
LARGE_CAP_TYPICAL_OVERLAP
Methodology
6 MIN READ
Fund health score: why peer-relative beats absolute thresholds
Most fund scorecards fail the same way: they punish a small-cap fund for higher volatility and reward a large-cap fund for lower returns. The Punji health score solves this by comparing every fund only against its SEBI category peers - not against a universal yardstick that conflates apples with mangoes.
3
INVESTOR_PROFILES
9
INPUT_METRICS
100
SCORE_RANGE_TOP
Alpha Lab
9 MIN READ
The Quality Trap: A 13-Year Alpha Audit of Indian Equities
Across multiple bull runs, bear markets, and a once-in-a-generation crash, the evidence from Indian equities is consistent: systematically screening for quality does not generate alpha. But the data reveals exactly when it does - and what that tells us about how quality should actually be used.
13
YEARS_ANALYSED_(FY2013-FY2025)
3,800
STOCK-YEAR_OBSERVATIONS
4
YEARS_QUALITY_BEAT_LOW_QUALITY